Lumbering-Place
0x20b414d1335ac61e777eb472d2a3a65e43a75ffa
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.68
Total PnL
$-1.9K
Realised
$-150.75
Win rate
14%
22 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
30 shares @ 16.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.24
$-2.54
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
11 shares @ 11.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.63
$-0.63
- YES
Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?
13 shares @ 10.0¢·now 4.5¢·exp Mar 31, 2027$0.59
$-0.70
- YES
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
21 shares @ 4.8¢·now 1.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.22
$-0.78
- YES
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?
443 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-4.00
- YES
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?
286 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 3AM ET
221 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-6.00
- NO
Will Trump say "Countdown" or "Count down" at Christmas Tree Lighting on December 4?
203 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 4, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - September 1, 6AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 1, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will the ECB announce an increase at the September meeting?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 11, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President before 2027?$4.78Apr 1, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by April 30?$1.00Apr 1, 22:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$5.78Apr 1, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYMajor volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) in 2026?$1.29Mar 8, 23:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.39Mar 8, 23:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$0.88Mar 8, 23:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$1.26Feb 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.28Feb 16, 00:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?$6.80Jan 5, 12:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 15 - 21)$2.26Dec 27, 02:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Stephen Hawking be named in newly released Epstein files?$4.55Dec 27, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "MAGA" or "Make America Great Again" this week? (December 15 - 21)$1.85Dec 18, 09:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.05Dec 18, 09:22 UTC
- TRADESELLEpstein or Maxwell confirmed Mossad operatives in 2025?$0.80Dec 18, 09:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brian Armstrong say "Base Token" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?$3.55Dec 16, 10:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Brian Armstrong say "Tokenized Equity" at the Coinbase product showcase on December 17?$3.55Dec 16, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill another person/thing be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$2.28Dec 11, 11:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?$2.60Dec 11, 11:06 UTC
- TRADESELLNATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in 2025?$0.42Dec 4, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu out by 2025?$0.71Dec 4, 23:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
45/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 22 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
22 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $2.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 23, 08:20 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 1, 22:26 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 22 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.