Wallet digest

active

Activity score

43/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$17.94

Total PnL

$-4.2K

Realised

$-1.6K

Win rate

104 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
18 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026
$17.94
$3.95
TIMBERWOLVES
Timberwolves vs. Rockets
222 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 17, 2026
$0.00
$-5.54
SPURS
Spurs vs. Thunder
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
TIMBERWOLVES
Timberwolves vs. Jazz
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 21, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
OLE MISS
Miami vs. Ole Miss
198 shares @ 39.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-77.64
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7AM ET
139 shares @ 27.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-38.14
KINGS
Raptors vs. Kings
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 9, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET
94 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026
$0.00
$-35.13
YES
Will Aberdeen FC win on 2026-01-11?
93 shares @ 20.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026
$0.00
$-18.81
PACKERS
Packers vs. Bears
91 shares @ 63.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026
$0.00
$-57.66

Recent activity

MAKER_REBATE$0.01Feb 5, 00:07 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 4, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET$0.97Feb 4, 08:51 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET$1.10Feb 4, 07:53 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$1.48Feb 4, 07:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET$1.73Feb 4, 07:39 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 4, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET$0.79Feb 4, 06:55 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 4, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET$1.01Feb 4, 06:36 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$1.04Feb 4, 03:05 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$5.04Feb 4, 02:34 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET$1.48Feb 4, 02:16 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$2.11Feb 4, 00:43 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$1.10Feb 4, 00:39 UTC
MAKER_REBATE$0.06Feb 4, 00:11 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET$0.92Feb 4, 00:11 UTC
TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$2.12Feb 3, 23:28 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.09Feb 3, 23:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$1.10Feb 3, 22:55 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$0.97Feb 3, 20:06 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - February 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET$0.14Feb 3, 20:06 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$1.01Feb 3, 19:06 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 104 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 48/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

104 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry71 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk48 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $1.14
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Feb 3, 03:50 UTC
Last active: Feb 5, 00:07 UTC
Win rate sample: 104 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 11:56:55 UTC·src:Polymarket Data