Wallet digest

active

Activity score

47/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

183

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-849.40

Realised

$4.48

Win rate

42%

19 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 183

BUVAYSAR GADAMAURI
Wuning 2: Buvaysar Gadamauri vs Charles Broom
999 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 24, 2026
$0.00
$-9.03
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET
929 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026
$0.00
$-9.29
OVER
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 2.5
485 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-0.97
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 12, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET
186 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.86
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET
164 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026
$0.00
$-83.61
NINGBO ROCKETS
Ningbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls
143 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
3DMAX
Counter-Strike: G2 vs 3DMAX (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A
142 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026
$0.00
$-0.97
YES
Will Torino FC win on 2026-04-19?
120 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-7.68
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
110 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026
$0.00
$-80.29
OVER
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 1.5
97 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-0.97

Recent activity

REDEEMKCC Egis vs. Goyang$1.56May 9, 18:44 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Toronto FC 2 - 1 Inter Miami CF?$1.03May 9, 04:58 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Toronto FC 1 - 2 Inter Miami CF?$1.03May 9, 04:57 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Toronto FC 0 - 1 Inter Miami CF?$1.03May 9, 04:52 UTC
TRADEBUYKCC Egis vs. Goyang$1.01May 9, 04:45 UTC
TRADEBUYUS Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5$1.01May 4, 14:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio end in a draw?$1.02May 4, 14:03 UTC
TRADEBUYChelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Draw at halftime?$1.02May 4, 13:48 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 1 Nottingham Forest FC?$1.03May 4, 13:48 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Chelsea FC 2 - 0 Nottingham Forest FC?$2.05May 4, 13:48 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET$1.05May 3, 12:29 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$4.60May 2, 18:38 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET$5.19May 2, 18:37 UTC
TRADEBUYNingbo Rockets vs. Zhejiang Golden Bulls$1.03May 2, 18:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Girona FC win on 2026-05-01?$1.02May 1, 19:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET$1.04May 1, 14:14 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.67May 1, 14:09 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.81May 1, 14:09 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.34May 1, 14:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$1.04May 1, 14:06 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

46/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

42% win rate over 19 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence63 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry50 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk34 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $1.86
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 29, 19:02 UTC
Last active: May 9, 18:44 UTC
Win rate sample: 19 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 05:42:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data