Instructive-Steppingstone
0x20fe5ae10fdf04c95aa505b607c177a039ff6679
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-152.57
Realised
$5.66
Win rate
86%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
4940 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-4.94
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET
300 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET
152 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET
151 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-9.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET
131 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET
116 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
107 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 23?
88 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET
58 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026$0.00
$-7.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET
53 shares @ 18.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-9.73
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping?$0.00May 23, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on May 23?$3.20May 23, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$0.00May 22, 10:52 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$0.00May 22, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET$1.04May 22, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET$3.16May 22, 03:24 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$3.33May 22, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET$1.05May 22, 02:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET$5.23May 22, 02:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$1.07May 22, 01:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET$3.18May 22, 01:48 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$0.07May 22, 01:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$1.04May 22, 01:43 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$4.09May 22, 01:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET$3.14May 22, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.04May 21, 22:25 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$5.06May 21, 22:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET$3.11May 21, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$3.15May 21, 21:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.07May 21, 21:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
86% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 14:06 UTC
- Last active
- May 23, 01:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.