Our-Tadpole
0x21508d65d25892f07faa81d4c6e788eba703943d
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
40
Open notional
$173.61
Total PnL
$-224.18
Realised
$-72.51
Win rate
0%
33 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 40- DOWN
BNB Up or Down on May 23?
101 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$101.01
$1.01
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?
25 shares @ 99.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 8, 2026$25.23
$0.23
- UNDER
Dalian Yingbo FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5
20 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$20.20
$0.20
- YES
Will Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
16 shares @ 98.8¢·now 96.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$15.55
$-0.45
- UNDER
Beijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5
12 shares @ 86.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$11.63
$1.63
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 6AM ET
94 shares @ 53.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET
37 shares @ 53.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-20.06
- WIZARDS
Hornets vs. Wizards
28 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
XRP Up or Down - February 21, 5AM ET
19 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 21, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- DOWN
Solana Up or Down - February 22, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET
14 shares @ 61.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-8.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Abiy Ahmed be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?$16.00Jun 7, 01:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 6 to June 8, 2026?$25.01Jun 7, 01:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYDalian Yingbo FC vs. Chengdu Rongcheng FC: O/U 4.5$20.01May 23, 13:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBeijing Guoan FC vs. Henan FC: O/U 3.5$10.04May 23, 13:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down on May 23?$100.07May 23, 13:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$15.12May 23, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?$25.75May 23, 13:01 UTC
- REDEEMValencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5$36.42May 23, 13:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYValencia CF vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 5.5$35.04May 14, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?$15.01May 14, 08:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Six Seven" during events with Xi Jinping?$25.03May 14, 08:33 UTC
- REDEEMBurnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score$11.49May 14, 08:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?$15.56May 14, 08:32 UTC
- REDEEMUS Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5$15.79May 14, 08:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS Cremonese vs. Pisa SC: O/U 4.5$15.02May 10, 13:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026?$15.03May 10, 13:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYBurnley FC vs. Aston Villa FC: Both Teams to Score$10.04May 10, 13:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$1.04May 10, 13:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump visit China by April 30?$1.52May 10, 13:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?$15.06May 10, 13:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
60/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 33 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
27 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
33 closed markets, 0% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $21.83
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 14, 14:35 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 7, 01:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 33 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.