Wan-Friendship
0x215f86b4aee95c82025b4ef929d13e5686376aa1
Wallet digest
Activity score
51/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$127.55
Total PnL
$-998.24
Realised
$-456.68
Win rate
0%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $805 Week of August 10 2026?
105 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 14, 2026$105.11
$0.11
- NO
Will Elena Lasconi be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
15 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$15.04
$-0.01
- CHIDI NJOKUANI
UFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)
7 shares @ 27.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 16, 2026$7.41
$5.41
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 11?
1650 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.30
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?
1200 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.40
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026?
1188 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-33.80
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 9?
1050 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026?
833 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by May 8?
750 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $76,000 on April 10?
696 shares @ 24.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$0.00
$-172.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $805 Week of August 10 2026?$105.00Aug 14, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUFC 330: Chidi Njokuani vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims)$2.07Aug 14, 08:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$10.81Aug 11, 09:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$8.06Jul 3, 11:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $265?$104.20Jul 3, 11:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $265?$104.00Jun 26, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21?$104.10Jun 26, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21?$104.01Jun 19, 12:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill Moonshot have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$15.05Jun 19, 12:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?$89.09Jun 19, 12:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in May 2026?$89.00May 31, 12:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 30?$11.91May 31, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$77.08May 31, 12:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$77.00May 30, 11:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYSan Diego Padres vs. Washington Nationals$4.46May 30, 11:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in May?$81.50May 30, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) hit (LOW) $108 in May?$81.35May 29, 10:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 30?$11.90May 29, 10:27 UTC
- REDEEMCounter-Strike: magic vs FaZe (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs$6.41May 29, 09:50 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026?$86.17May 29, 09:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $77.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 16, 04:16 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 14, 08:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.