Pale-Arrogance
0x217bea1cddfffbd62ef988dd0c164e95e65efa65
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$2.25
Total PnL
$-583.72
Realised
$-4.75
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
115 shares @ 26.0¢·now 1.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$2.25
$-27.75
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March?
1000 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
855 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-17.00
- YES
Will "Peaky Blinders: The Immortal Man" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
469 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March?
268 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET
200 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-9.99
- YES
Will "War Machine" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
174 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET
137 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-10.97
- YES
Will "Nobody 2" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week?
137 shares @ 8.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-11.00
- YES
Will "Nobody 2" be the top US Netflix movie this week?
109 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by March 31?$2.50Mar 28, 22:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$5.00Mar 28, 17:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$5.99Mar 28, 17:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET$5.00Mar 28, 17:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET$5.00Mar 28, 17:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET$5.00Mar 28, 17:41 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$11.44Mar 28, 17:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET$10.00Mar 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLHouthi military action against Israel by April 30, 2026?$13.60Mar 28, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$20.00Mar 25, 13:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$10.00Mar 25, 13:36 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$30.58Mar 25, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$30.00Mar 25, 13:32 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$10.19Mar 25, 13:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET$10.00Mar 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?$30.00Mar 25, 13:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET$40.00Mar 25, 11:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$10.00Mar 25, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$7.40Mar 25, 11:39 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET$4.19Mar 25, 11:37 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $16.89
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 10:43 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 22:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".