Untidy-Television
0x21b1efb495ca4ef6c9a6a19dc30c6c5afc5eba4a
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
124
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-205.74
Realised
$0.18
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 124- YES
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 13°C on May 14?
2060 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 12°C on May 14?
1860 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 16?
83 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 23°C on May 14?
75 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 18°C on May 14?
60 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.41
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17?
58 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 14?
57 shares @ 4.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.29
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 1?
54 shares @ 66.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-36.21
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 34°C on May 14?
50 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-2.50
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 16?
45 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?$18.55Jun 16, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15?$17.64Jun 15, 21:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15?$1.92May 18, 05:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C or higher on May 17?$1.04May 17, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jakarta be 32°C on May 17?$1.04May 17, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 27°C or higher on May 18?$1.04May 17, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 17?$1.05May 17, 03:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 74°F or higher on May 18?$1.05May 17, 03:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on May 16?$2.04May 17, 03:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be 88°F or higher on May 16?$2.44May 17, 03:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16?$1.05May 16, 05:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on May 16?$1.05May 16, 05:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C or below on May 15?$2.13May 16, 04:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 72°F or higher on May 16?$1.05May 16, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C or higher on May 17?$1.05May 16, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Denver be 84°F or higher on May 16?$1.05May 16, 00:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 35°C or higher on May 17?$1.04May 16, 00:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on May 15?$2.22May 15, 13:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Busan be 25°C on May 15?$2.21May 15, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 15?$1.04May 15, 07:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $1.51
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 14, 14:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 16, 06:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.