Rough-Work
0x21d1270966ffd30e76ba6d86072e19c639d47423
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
23
Open notional
$13.51
Total PnL
$-385.48
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- YES
Will Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?
14 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$13.51
$3.51
- YES
Lisa Cook arrested by September 30?
306 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will the US recognize Palestine in 2025?
288 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-37.00
- YES
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?
279 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister?
235 shares @ 21.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will the next Government of Canada be a Conservative majority?
182 shares @ 6.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- NO
US government shutdown by October 1?
163 shares @ 21.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 1, 2025$0.00
$-35.00
- YES
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025?
115 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-15.00
- YES
Will Gold hit $3,600 before June?
108 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-12.00
- YES
Will Luis Antonio Tagle be the next pope?
103 shares @ 19.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown by October 1?$20.00Sep 30, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLUS government shutdown in 2025?$17.50Sep 30, 14:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown by October 1?$15.00Sep 30, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS government shutdown in 2025?$20.00Sep 30, 13:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYJohn Bolton in jail in 2025?$5.00Aug 27, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYLisa Cook arrested by September 30?$10.00Aug 27, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lisa Cook vote at the next FOMC meeting?$10.00Aug 27, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by September 30?$10.00Aug 27, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?$5.00Aug 27, 14:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia in 2025?$6.00Aug 27, 14:24 UTC
- REDEEMUS military action against Iran before July?$45.45Aug 27, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYLisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30?$10.00Aug 27, 14:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$10.00Aug 27, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$20.00Jun 28, 14:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS military action against Iran before July?$20.00Jun 19, 17:56 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael military action against Iran before July?$68.97Jun 19, 12:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup?$20.00Jun 8, 14:01 UTC
- TRADESELLDiddy convicted of a felony?$15.45Jun 8, 13:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rafał Trzaskowski be the next President of Poland?$12.00May 25, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Hamas ceasefire before July?$8.00May 25, 15:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $23.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 28, 12:16 UTC
- Last active
- Sep 30, 14:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.