Only-Thermometer
0x2232de21ea9c2d4117aa0c036834ccae53a1a2c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
157
Open notional
$288.43
Total PnL
$111.41
Realised
$142.82
Win rate
66%
58 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 157- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 16°C on July 13?
10 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$9.99
$2.59
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C or below on July 13?
10 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$9.99
$0.54
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 13?
10 shares @ 34.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$9.95
$6.55
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?
8 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.7¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$8.31
$0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on July 13?
10 shares @ 72.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$8.05
$0.85
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 14?
10 shares @ 53.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$7.90
$2.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on July 14?
10 shares @ 81.5¢·now 78.5¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$7.85
$-0.30
- NO
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in July 2026?
10 shares @ 81.0¢·now 77.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$7.70
$-0.40
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C on July 15?
10 shares @ 85.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$7.65
$-0.85
- NO
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on July 13?
8 shares @ 75.0¢·now 94.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$7.52
$1.52
Recent activity
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$4.00Jul 13, 20:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 29°C on July 15?$2.00Jul 13, 20:42 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?$1.58Jul 13, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?$9.85Jul 13, 20:40 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 14?$7.69Jul 13, 20:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 39°C on July 14?$6.19Jul 13, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 14?$0.20Jul 13, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on July 14?$2.70Jul 13, 20:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$0.23Jul 13, 20:29 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$1.88Jul 13, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$1.52Jul 13, 20:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on July 14?$0.25Jul 13, 20:28 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 14?$1.25Jul 13, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 14?$0.79Jul 13, 20:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on July 14?$0.40Jul 13, 20:22 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 14?$7.59Jul 13, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 37°C on July 14?$3.70Jul 13, 20:21 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?$5.12Jul 13, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 33°C on July 14?$0.08Jul 13, 20:19 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Moscow be 26°C on July 14?$3.76Jul 13, 20:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
77/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 58 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
58 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $2.15
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 20:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 20:42 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 58 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.