0x2250d40930b11eacbdf5085c3fa24f1ee27d4cd7
0x2250d40930b11eacbdf5085c3fa24f1ee27d4cd7
Wallet digest
Activity score
85/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$362.95
Total PnL
$83.72
Realised
$-3.25
Win rate
3%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 94-95°F on August 19?
170 shares @ 82.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$169.76
$29.16
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 18?
75 shares @ 22.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$74.84
$57.94
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 94-95°F on August 18?
41 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$41.10
$34.94
- NO
Will Tropical Storm Lala make landfall in Hawaii as a hurricane?
23 shares @ 82.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$22.82
$3.96
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 19?
15 shares @ 34.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$15.00
$9.80
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on August 12?
15 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$14.56
$1.75
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 78-79°F on August 13?
10 shares @ 28.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 13, 2026$9.82
$7.07
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on August 19?
5 shares @ 8.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$5.00
$4.60
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?
18 shares @ 33.9¢·now 25.0¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$4.38
$-1.55
- NO
Will it rain in Dallas, TX on August 19?
5 shares @ 96.8¢·now 60.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$3.16
$-1.90
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$27.44Aug 20, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$9.27Aug 20, 06:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$5.52Aug 20, 06:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$3.30Aug 20, 06:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$5.44Aug 20, 06:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$20.19Aug 20, 06:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$11.04Aug 20, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$15.93Aug 20, 06:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$0.14Aug 20, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$0.13Aug 20, 06:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$0.35Aug 20, 05:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$0.27Aug 20, 05:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$7.48Aug 20, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$0.13Aug 20, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$4.04Aug 20, 05:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$6.75Aug 20, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on August 20?$6.15Aug 20, 04:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill it rain in Dallas, TX on August 19?$5.09Aug 20, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$30.91Aug 20, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 28°C on August 20?$29.08Aug 20, 02:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
3% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.
38 closed markets, 3% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.45
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 19, 18:25 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 06:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.