0x227bae2c175dc2f652202044f391db7117a376f9
0x227bae2c175dc2f652202044f391db7117a376f9
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$95.42
Total PnL
$-3.96
Realised
$-3.91
Win rate
0%
5 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
90 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$89.43
$-0.04
- NO
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.20
$-0.00
- NO
Will Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
2 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$1.63
$-0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1 shares @ 99.3¢·now 99.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.16
$-0.00
- NO
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.01
$-0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$1.12Jul 25, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Moshe Feiglin be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$0.21Jul 25, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.25Jul 25, 10:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Civic Platform (GP) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.60Jul 25, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$20.79Jul 25, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.43Jul 25, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$20.84Jul 25, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.12Jul 25, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$0.42Jul 25, 10:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$0.08Jul 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election?$1.42Jul 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.30Jul 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jiri Lehecka win the 2026 Men's US Open?$1.52Jul 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election?$0.23Jul 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia before 2027?$0.11Jul 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.37Jul 25, 10:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel?$2.37Jul 25, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.50Jul 25, 10:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.37Jul 25, 10:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election?$25.15Jul 25, 10:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
14/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 69/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 25, 09:18 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 10:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.