Stale-Cashew
0x229c0a7d92977a9934e5ac2348d507988996b966
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$851.24
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$87.10
Win rate
77%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will any AI model reach 1560 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
207 shares @ 3.4¢·now 51.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$106.65
$99.65
- NO
Iman Vellani as Ms. Marvel?
144 shares @ 4.4¢·now 54.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$77.67
$71.37
- UP
Nikkei 225 (NIK) Up or Down on July 29?
205 shares @ 2.9¢·now 34.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$70.68
$64.68
- NO
Will Procter & Gamble say "Category" during earnings call?
194 shares @ 2.6¢·now 25.7¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$49.79
$44.79
- NO
Will Virtu Financial (VIRT) beat quarterly earnings?
189 shares @ 2.6¢·now 21.4¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$40.49
$35.54
- YES
Pacifica FDV above $100M one day after launch?
104 shares @ 3.8¢·now 38.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$40.15
$36.20
- NO
Will Chime Financial (CHYM) beat quarterly earnings?
105 shares @ 4.8¢·now 29.5¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$30.86
$25.86
- NO
Tread FDV above $5M one day after launch
107 shares @ 3.7¢·now 24.4¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$26.09
$22.09
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 21.6¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$21.55
$20.55
- YES
Will Jonathan Hofeller be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's IPO?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 20.4¢·exp Jun 13, 2026$20.44
$19.44
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on July 29?$1.32Jul 29, 06:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?$0.11Jul 29, 06:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be between 100-101°F on July 28?$8.10Jul 29, 06:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 28?$7.13Jul 29, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 29?$0.53Jul 29, 06:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 29?$1.60Jul 29, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$0.89Jul 29, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$0.11Jul 29, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on July 29?$0.38Jul 29, 06:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?$0.22Jul 29, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?$0.37Jul 29, 06:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Busan be 38°C on July 29?$0.04Jul 29, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$0.30Jul 29, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$1.00Jul 29, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on July 29?$2.00Jul 29, 06:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$0.70Jul 29, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$0.36Jul 29, 06:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on July 29?$0.18Jul 29, 06:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
31/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
77% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 36/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $1.47
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 06:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 06:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.