0x22cfb0c8ae14af7d5af9d6a63ae2c3cbbafdb815
0x22cfb0c8ae14af7d5af9d6a63ae2c3cbbafdb815
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
64
Open notional
$1.78
Total PnL
$-67.06
Realised
$1.29
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 64- NO
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 97.4¢·now 97.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.78
$-0.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on April 4?
259 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-5.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 28°C or below on April 5?
190 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.19
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on April 5?
140 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-4.21
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on April 4?
107 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-3.68
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C or higher on April 4?
95 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on April 4?
64 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-0.64
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 82-83°F on April 5?
63 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.88
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 23°C on April 4?
57 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 4, 2026$0.00
$-1.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C or below on April 5?
57 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.06
Recent activity
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$2.11Jul 16, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - April 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET$4.20Jul 16, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 9, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET$4.57Jul 16, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET$8.81Jul 16, 19:27 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 7, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$10.92Jul 16, 19:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$1.09Apr 16, 15:37 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) finish week of April 6 above $285?$0.00Apr 11, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $140?$0.00Apr 11, 00:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $150?$0.00Apr 11, 00:32 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $130?$0.00Apr 11, 00:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 23°C or higher on April 4?$0.00Apr 10, 22:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Netflix (NFLX) finish week of April 6 above $160?$0.00Apr 10, 22:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 58-59°F on April 5?$0.00Apr 10, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Apr 10, 16:03 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$0.00Apr 10, 16:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$0.46Apr 10, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET$0.49Apr 10, 15:53 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$0.00Apr 10, 15:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - April 10, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET$0.74Apr 10, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Amazon (AMZN) finish week of April 6 above $240?$0.86Apr 10, 15:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $0.97
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 16:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 19:27 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.