Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-17.3K

Realised

$-6.3K

Win rate

162 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 7PM ET
294 shares @ 46.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 5, 2026
$0.00
$-136.80
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 5PM ET
290 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026
$0.00
$-36.10
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 3AM ET
279 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-34.90
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 4, 2AM ET
271 shares @ 12.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026
$0.00
$-34.70
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 3, 6AM ET
271 shares @ 24.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026
$0.00
$-65.50
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 31, 7PM ET
270 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-61.30
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 11PM ET
261 shares @ 15.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026
$0.00
$-40.90
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - February 1, 9AM ET
257 shares @ 22.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026
$0.00
$-58.72
DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 1PM ET
256 shares @ 14.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026
$0.00
$-37.30
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - January 30, 12PM ET
253 shares @ 16.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026
$0.00
$-40.90

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 4PM ET$30.00Jul 29, 22:15 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 12PM ET$30.00Jul 29, 21:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 4PM ET$27.19Jul 29, 20:52 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 11AM ET$30.00Jul 29, 19:07 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 12PM ET$27.47Jul 29, 16:55 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 11AM ET$25.80Jul 29, 15:45 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9AM ET$30.00Jul 29, 14:13 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 29, 9AM ET$26.05Jul 29, 13:50 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 10PM ET$30.00Jul 29, 03:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 10PM ET$27.17Jul 29, 02:47 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 8PM ET$30.00Jul 29, 01:12 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 8PM ET$26.05Jul 29, 00:51 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET$30.00Jul 28, 21:31 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 4PM ET$26.62Jul 28, 20:45 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$30.00Jul 28, 20:14 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 28, 3PM ET$27.75Jul 28, 19:45 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET$100.00Jul 26, 17:37 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET$29.12Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET$29.97Jul 26, 16:45 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - July 26, 12PM ET$13.63Jul 26, 16:45 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

53/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 162 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 31/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

162 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry5 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk31 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 34
Avg trade size: $26.25
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jun 30, 22:42 UTC
Last active: Jul 29, 22:15 UTC
Win rate sample: 162 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 22:33:11 UTC·src:Polymarket Data