Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-666.13

Realised

$-315.28

Win rate

64 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 64

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET
200 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET
44 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-15.48
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET
36 shares @ 37.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-13.48
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET
34 shares @ 54.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-18.15
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET
26 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-15.86
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
24 shares @ 43.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 26, 2026
$0.00
$-10.62
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET
21 shares @ 44.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-9.24
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET
18 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-9.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
18 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-8.80
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET
17 shares @ 53.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 2, 2026
$0.00
$-9.18

Recent activity

REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$4.00Aug 20, 13:32 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$2.00Aug 20, 13:32 UTC
REDEEMBNB Up or Down - August 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$2.00Aug 20, 13:32 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$3.63Aug 20, 13:28 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$1.83Aug 20, 13:25 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 20, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$1.93Aug 20, 13:25 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$3.00Aug 20, 13:15 UTC
REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$4.00Aug 20, 13:15 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 20, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$3.70Aug 20, 12:55 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$0.00Aug 20, 12:46 UTC
TRADESELLHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$4.47Aug 20, 12:44 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$9.25Aug 20, 12:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 20, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$2.63Aug 20, 12:28 UTC
REDEEMSolana Up or Down - August 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$2.00Aug 20, 11:46 UTC
REDEEMHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$2.00Aug 20, 11:46 UTC
TRADEBUYHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$1.81Aug 20, 11:37 UTC
TRADESELLBNB Up or Down - August 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$1.96Aug 20, 11:36 UTC
TRADEBUYSolana Up or Down - August 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$1.91Aug 20, 11:33 UTC
TRADEBUYBNB Up or Down - August 20, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET$1.74Aug 20, 11:32 UTC
TRADESELLHyperliquid Up or Down - August 20, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET$1.91Aug 20, 11:23 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 64 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

37 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

64 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry83 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk24 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 37
Avg trade size: $2.51
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 20, 09:26 UTC
Last active: Aug 20, 13:32 UTC
Win rate sample: 64 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:41:18 UTC·src:Polymarket Data