Bright-Warmth
0x23c7ffc7837b6ebe613b85416ec849d9cbc707d7
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
84
Open notional
$14.58
Total PnL
$-210.84
Realised
$5.32
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 84- YES
Will Trump deport 500-600k people?
14 shares @ 7.0¢·now 15.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.26
$1.26
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
7 shares @ 13.4¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$2.01
$1.01
- NO
Will Trump endorse María Corina Machado for Venezuela president in 2026?
2 shares @ 64.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.38
$0.38
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
10 shares @ 9.7¢·now 12.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.27
$0.27
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
9 shares @ 11.0¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.15
$0.15
- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
13 shares @ 8.0¢·now 9.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.14
$0.14
- YES
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
111 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.06
$0.06
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 50 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.71
$-0.29
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.69
$-0.31
- YES
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 51 Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
5 shares @ 22.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.61
$-0.39
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Apr 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Women's Sport" during the White House Easter Egg Roll?$30.00Apr 5, 06:42 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.06Apr 5, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by March 31?$1.11Apr 5, 06:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill 3 judges rule in favor of Trump's Tarriffs?$3.23Mar 22, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Japan" during the State of the Union address?$4.00Mar 22, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union address?$4.35Mar 22, 12:36 UTC
- REDEEMKristi Noem out by March 31?$8.33Mar 22, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Accords" during meeting with Netanyahu?$20.00Feb 10, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Bad Bunny" or "Super Bowl" during Fox interview on Tuesday?$10.00Feb 10, 20:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Hottest" during the 2026 State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 5, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "America" or "American" 25+ times during the 2026 State of the Union address?$1.00Feb 5, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Japan" during the State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 5, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "India" during the State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 5, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Somalia" during the State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 5, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Western Hemisphere" during the State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 5, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Arizona" during the State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 5, 21:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump say "Colombia" during the State of the Union address?$2.00Feb 5, 21:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS government shutdown Saturday?$3.85Feb 5, 21:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 6°C on February 3?$35.71Feb 5, 21:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $4.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 15, 20:25 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 29, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.