Alarmed-Tic-Penny
0x23d1ef7c9e8e774db4e2b40b3021c9cd340e743a
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$5.0K
Total PnL
$-2.3K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
6389 shares @ 37.5¢·now 21.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.4K
$-1.0K
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
2259 shares @ 38.5¢·now 37.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$835.85
$-34.38
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
1653 shares @ 72.3¢·now 48.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$801.62
$-393.17
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
2220 shares @ 45.6¢·now 31.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$699.18
$-312.89
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
320 shares @ 72.6¢·now 77.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$246.40
$14.00
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?
972 shares @ 33.9¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$228.43
$-101.31
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?
474 shares @ 58.8¢·now 47.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$225.05
$-53.58
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
2800 shares @ 8.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$154.00
$-70.00
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?
1436 shares @ 27.3¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$150.81
$-240.93
- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $600B by December 31?
166 shares @ 77.0¢·now 84.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$140.27
$12.45
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$5.35Jun 24, 21:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?$6.10Jun 15, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$0.46Jun 13, 02:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$1.16Jun 12, 03:32 UTC
- REWARD$1.72Jun 12, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$142.00Jun 11, 08:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?$5.51Jun 11, 07:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31?$8.79Jun 11, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31?$6.57Jun 11, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31?$0.18Jun 11, 01:58 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.96Jun 11, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$6.75Jun 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$3.30Jun 10, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$8.59Jun 10, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$24.00Jun 10, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by December 31?$41.71Jun 10, 22:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$9.36Jun 10, 22:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$98.00Jun 10, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.0T by December 31?$8.78Jun 10, 20:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by December 31?$2.52Jun 10, 20:11 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $58.92
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 09:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 24, 21:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.