0x240d0699ca8f4f1fb2e5b0a2ced2cc1afde32cd9
0x240d0699ca8f4f1fb2e5b0a2ced2cc1afde32cd9
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
14
Open notional
$12.00
Total PnL
$-16.98
Realised
$-8.50
Win rate
14%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Al Fayha Saudi Club win on 2026-03-07?
8 shares @ 43.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$8.00
$4.56
- YES
Will Columbus Crew vs. Chicago Fire FC end in a draw?
4 shares @ 30.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 8, 2026$4.00
$2.80
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on March 3?
2700 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.70
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 41°F or below on March 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be 47°F or below on March 3?
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 3?
531 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.53
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?
438 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.63
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026?
100 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 6, 2026$0.00
$-0.10
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 56°F or higher on March 3?
24 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-2.37
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 3?
14 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 3, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 21, 04:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 21, 04:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 21, 04:19 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 21, 04:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alexis Hill win the 2026 Nevada Governor Democratic primary election?$0.00Jul 20, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-03-03?$0.00Jul 20, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Dallas be 69°F or below on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be 47°F or below on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill Audax CS Italiano win on 2026-03-03?$0.00Jul 20, 10:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Paris be 12°C or below on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 33°C or higher on March 3?$0.00Jul 20, 10:03 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
33/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
14% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 09:46 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 04:36 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.