Optimal-Deduce
0x2441d8284c7105870ead2e1c40a7f2522e9aa4c9
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-2.5K
Realised
$1.99
Win rate
4%
57 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET
2500 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-19.47
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 4, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET
1507 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 5, 2026$0.00
$-155.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
661 shares @ 15.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 19, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Will Belgium win on 2026-07-10?
657 shares @ 16.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-110.00
- YES
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?
583 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 19, 2025$0.00
$-21.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET
507 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
500 shares @ 5.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-24.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 6, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
475 shares @ 5.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2026$0.00
$-24.25
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$233.81Aug 19, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$5.09Aug 19, 21:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$25.30Aug 19, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$101.75Aug 19, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$25.44Aug 19, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$25.42Aug 19, 21:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$25.66Aug 19, 21:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$26.10Aug 19, 21:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$0.00Aug 19, 21:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$230.01Aug 19, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$5.09Aug 19, 21:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$25.42Aug 19, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$25.33Aug 19, 21:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$25.10Aug 19, 21:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$100.63Aug 19, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$25.28Aug 19, 21:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET$26.27Aug 19, 21:10 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$45.94Aug 19, 21:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.26Aug 19, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET$5.22Aug 19, 21:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 57 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
57 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $36.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 16:57 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 21:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 57 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.