Wallet digest

active

Activity score

70/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

168

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-25.9K

Realised

$614.97

Win rate

100%

11 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 168

YES
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026?
11903 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026
$0.00
$-118.83
NORTHERN IOWA PANTHERS
Northern Iowa Panthers vs. St. John's Red Storm
5002 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026
$0.00
$-49.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET
5000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026
$0.00
$-50.00
YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 20?
3478 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-59.12
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET
2138 shares @ 39.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026
$0.00
$-838.85
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET
2000 shares @ 52.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 15, 2026
$0.00
$-1.0K
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET
1923 shares @ 40.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 16, 2026
$0.00
$-776.81
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET
1826 shares @ 21.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 23, 2026
$0.00
$-397.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET
1715 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026
$0.00
$-16.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET
1343 shares @ 36.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 24, 2026
$0.00
$-483.53

Recent activity

YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:12 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:15 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:10 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:13 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: United States 2 - 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina?$4.09Jul 1, 22:48 UTC
TRADESELLBelgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance$3.99Jul 1, 22:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBelgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance$34.53Jul 1, 22:27 UTC
TRADESELLBelgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$34.45Jul 1, 22:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBelgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance$33.59Jul 1, 22:23 UTC
TRADESELLBelgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$33.34Jul 1, 22:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBelgium vs. Senegal: Team to Advance$19.32Jul 1, 22:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBelgium vs. Senegal: Will the Match Go to a Penalty Shootout?$50.75Jul 1, 22:07 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Belgium win on 2026-07-01?$103.21Jul 1, 20:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$103.57Jul 1, 20:05 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$5.16Jul 1, 19:58 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$5.16Jul 1, 19:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET$25.82Jul 1, 19:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET$25.85Jul 1, 19:52 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET$53.69Jul 1, 19:52 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

36/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

100% win rate over 11 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity41 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence37 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry63 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $78.26
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 20, 15:29 UTC
Last active: Jul 7, 00:16 UTC
Win rate sample: 11 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:09:35 UTC·src:Polymarket Data