Well-To-Do-Commotion
0x2491cb59f642f197b03079a9f980dcc91d05000c
Wallet digest
Activity score
46/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
4
Open notional
$41.28
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$-13.42
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?
15 shares @ 97.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$15.37
$0.37
- NO
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
13 shares @ 97.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$13.37
$0.37
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 4?
13 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2026$12.54
$0.04
- NO
Will Ethereum dip to $4000 in October?
1540 shares @ 77.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.2K
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on July 4?$12.50Jul 4, 01:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on July 4?$15.03Jul 4, 01:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$12.99Jul 4, 01:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 29?$14.59Jul 4, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 29°C on June 29?$14.50Jun 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jesus Christ return before 2027?$13.01Jun 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$13.01Jun 28, 07:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$10.02Jun 28, 07:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?$10.14Jun 28, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 in May?$10.05Jun 28, 07:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?$10.17Jun 28, 07:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?$10.10May 13, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $9,000 by end of June?$10.10May 13, 07:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana reach $160 in May?$10.00May 13, 07:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$10.00May 13, 07:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA reach $280 in March?$10.04May 13, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana reach $160 in March?$10.05May 13, 07:42 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$20.30May 13, 07:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?$20.28Mar 10, 03:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA reach $280 in March?$10.00Mar 10, 03:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
13/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 63/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $48.60
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Sep 21, 12:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 4, 01:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.