Wary-Quit
0x2494345f3f94b5bf4b8188cd32ea5fa5fc419a83
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-50.9K
Realised
$-20.8K
Win rate
5%
195 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
3089 shares @ 27.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026$0.00
$-835.71
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET
1857 shares @ 25.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$0.00
$-481.81
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 10, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET
1120 shares @ 30.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-337.02
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET
981 shares @ 37.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-369.74
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 6, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET
909 shares @ 29.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 6, 2025$0.00
$-269.52
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 7, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET
853 shares @ 34.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-296.54
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET
833 shares @ 57.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 25, 2026$0.00
$-481.75
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
823 shares @ 25.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-208.14
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 11, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET
807 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-87.09
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 13, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET
804 shares @ 43.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-348.74
Recent activity
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.23Aug 20, 01:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$3.40Aug 20, 01:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET$1.80Aug 20, 01:23 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$0.56Aug 20, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$22.27Aug 20, 01:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET$0.01Aug 20, 01:16 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.45Aug 20, 01:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$12.19Aug 20, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$0.27Aug 20, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$4.57Aug 20, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.79Aug 20, 01:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$6.02Aug 20, 01:01 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$44.41Aug 20, 00:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$9.88Aug 20, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$13.87Aug 20, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET$9.39Aug 20, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$42.90Aug 19, 07:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET$11.79Aug 19, 07:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$9.29Aug 19, 07:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 19, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET$6.87Aug 19, 07:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
65/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
5% win rate over 195 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
195 closed markets, 5% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $10.81
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 16, 11:34 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 20, 01:24 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 195 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.