Hard-Brushfire
0x249c3afeed6554cf43f97910876c51ff7a4cd01b
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$810.03
Total PnL
$-9.97
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Trump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?
136 shares @ 88.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 19, 2025$136.22
$16.22
- NO
Israel military action against Iran in July?
132 shares @ 76.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$131.58
$31.58
- NO
Elon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?
120 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$120.48
$20.48
- NO
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?
110 shares @ 90.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2025$110.01
$10.01
- NO
Israel strikes Yemen by Friday?
109 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 4, 2025$108.70
$8.70
- NO
Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
102 shares @ 98.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$101.83
$1.83
- NO
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?
101 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$101.21
$1.21
- NO
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?
143 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Putin meet with Zelenskyy before August?$100.00Jul 3, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Yemen by Friday?$100.00Jul 3, 12:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael military action against Iran in July?$100.00Jul 3, 12:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?$100.00Jul 3, 11:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYElon forms new party within 1 day of the spending bill passing?$100.00Jul 3, 11:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk create a new political party before August?$100.00Jul 3, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?$100.00Jul 3, 11:15 UTC
- TRADESELLTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$15.00Jan 15, 11:56 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine election scheduled in 2024?$108.25Jan 1, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael strikes Iranian oil in 2024?$108.70Jan 1, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMWill a nuclear weapon detonate in 2024?$112.36Jan 1, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMUkraine hits Moscow before 2025?$125.00Jan 1, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMNorth Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$140.50Jan 1, 14:48 UTC
- REDEEMRussia x Ukraine Ceasefire in 2024?$215.05Jan 1, 14:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Pokrovsk in 2024?$18.67Dec 18, 08:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?$0.00Dec 5, 13:12 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Hezbollah Ceasefire in 2024?$0.00Dec 5, 13:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorth Korea x South Korea military clash in 2024?$29.00Dec 3, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump ends Ukraine war before inauguration?$20.00Dec 2, 12:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days?$20.00Dec 2, 12:08 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $83.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Nov 17, 09:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 12:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".