Past-Fallacy
0x24ab0aa81caffd9bb5b40f033644b58f0a7a437f
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
16
Open notional
$11.02
Total PnL
$-5.98
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.19
$0.19
- YES
Will Bank of New York Mellon (BK) beat quarterly earnings?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 16, 2025$1.10
$0.10
- YES
Yieldbasis FDV above $500M one day after launch?
1 shares @ 92.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.09
$0.09
- YES
Will Elon Musk be richest person on October 31?
1 shares @ 96.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.04
$0.04
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17?
1 shares @ 97.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 17, 2025$1.03
$0.03
- YES
Will NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?
1 shares @ 97.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 22, 2026$1.02
$0.02
- YES
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025?
1 shares @ 98.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 18?
1 shares @ 98.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Oct 18, 2025$1.01
$0.01
- YES
Will MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.00
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,300 on October 18?$1.00Oct 15, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17?$1.00Oct 15, 14:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Mark Carney in October?$1.00Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 7?$1.00Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?$1.00Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump send the national guard to Chicago by December 31?$1.01Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 10?$1.02Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill "The Smashing Machine" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 7m?$1.02Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill 'Honey' be the least streamed song on The Life of a Showgirl on Oct 10th?$1.14Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Philadelphia Phillies be eliminated in the Division Series?$1.28Oct 15, 14:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 10?$1.00Oct 5, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $104,000 on October 7?$1.00Oct 5, 09:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Polymarket US go live in 2025?$1.00Oct 5, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the most valuable company on October 31?$1.00Oct 5, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast reach 450 million subscribers in 2025?$1.00Oct 5, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025?$1.00Oct 5, 09:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00Oct 5, 09:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk be richest person on October 31?$1.00Oct 5, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Philadelphia Phillies be eliminated in the Division Series?$1.00Oct 5, 09:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast's next video get less than 25 million views on day 1?$1.00Oct 5, 09:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $25.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 9, 05:12 UTC
- Last active
- Oct 15, 14:44 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".