Substantial-Poverty
0x24c6e5b51c3fb306916fcea8abf030184300b61f
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$105.11
Total PnL
$-4.8K
Realised
$-2.3K
Win rate
0%
29 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on August 12?
105 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026$105.11
$0.11
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17?
2400 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-4.80
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026?
1405 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.81
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12?
1387 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-4.16
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 17?
1050 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 17, 2026$0.00
$-2.10
- YES
Will Ethereum dip to $1,900 May 11-17?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 18, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 29, 2026?
985 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026$0.00
$-4.61
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on April 11?
766 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 11, 2026$0.00
$-195.21
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7?
756 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-192.82
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on March 20?
755 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 20, 2026$0.00
$-199.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be above $90 on August 12?$105.01Aug 11, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?$117.12Aug 11, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum reach $2,200 July 6-12?$117.01Jul 10, 09:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?$117.12Jul 10, 09:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?$117.00Jun 30, 11:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill OpenAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$12.31Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May 30?$14.62Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yoo Dong-soo win the 2026 Incheon mayoral election?$15.02Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$75.64Jun 30, 11:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$75.50May 31, 05:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?$75.50May 31, 05:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on May 30?$75.43May 30, 05:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?$74.90May 30, 05:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election?$75.02May 30, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYRoland Garros ATP: Matteo Berrettini vs Francisco Comesana$3.67May 30, 05:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$12.30May 30, 04:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$91.53May 30, 04:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026?$91.44May 29, 07:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be 59°F or below on May 30?$14.60May 29, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$106.03May 29, 07:50 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
48/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 29 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $90.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 19, 06:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 11, 07:28 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 29 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.