Arid-Stomach
0x24edf750e97b6fb12c24372a023664c18d929f94
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- YES
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $350b and $360b on March 31?
1829 shares @ 3.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-61.82
- YES
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $340b and $350b on March 31?
1751 shares @ 4.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-78.19
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30?
1138 shares @ 25.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-285.57
- YES
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31?
1116 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk's net worth be less than $330b on March 31?
856 shares @ 46.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-396.24
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on May 31?
711 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $370b on March 31?
600 shares @ 7.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2025$0.00
$-45.39
- YES
Will Trump issue a Gold Card before June?
188 shares @ 10.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Federal employee charged as a result of DOGE investigation?
167 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
- YES
Trump bans China from buying US farmland?
154 shares @ 35.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-55.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMFordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?$1.48May 7, 21:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYFordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?$1.18Jun 22, 01:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk create a new political party in June?$1.18Jun 22, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk create a new political party in June?$18.27Jun 5, 21:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill DOGE confirm Gold missing from Fort Knox?$18.26Jun 5, 21:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk create a new political party in June?$1.55Jun 5, 21:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI release an open source model before July?$1.55Jun 5, 21:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the top AI model on June 30?$35.57May 23, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump issue a Gold Card before June?$20.00May 23, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the top AI model on June 30?$20.00May 23, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill xAI have the top AI model on May 31?$20.00May 23, 20:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI release an open source model before July?$13.65May 23, 20:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill DOGE audit Fort Knox before May?$0.00May 23, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump eliminate daylight saving time in first 100 days?$0.00May 23, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. before April? $0.00May 23, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the top AI model on March 31?$0.00May 23, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill TikTok be on the App Store on May 1?$0.00May 23, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill xAI have the top AI model on April 30?$0.00May 23, 20:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in 2025?$24.10May 23, 20:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-5 be released by March 31?$0.00Apr 21, 23:02 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $28.36
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 24, 08:21 UTC
- Last active
- May 7, 21:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.