Practical-Thong
0x24f8b3759ebb560600a0ea68c69caf3008df31ff
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$191.67
Total PnL
$600.37
Realised
$575.07
Win rate
40%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?
201 shares @ 43.0¢·now 63.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$126.54
$40.15
- NO
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?
107 shares @ 7.5¢·now 25.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$27.32
$19.22
- NO
Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?
36 shares @ 27.5¢·now 26.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.47
$-0.53
- YES
Next Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?
28 shares @ 44.0¢·now 27.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$7.67
$-4.83
- NO
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by September 30, 2026?
23 shares @ 28.5¢·now 25.4¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$5.78
$-0.72
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 23, 2026?
186 shares @ 0.5¢·now 1.2¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$2.23
$1.23
- YES
Will GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?
109 shares @ 2.6¢·now 1.8¢·exp Aug 21, 2026$1.95
$-0.85
- YES
Will OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?
8 shares @ 19.0¢·now 18.0¢·exp Aug 30, 2026$1.49
$-0.08
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026?
29 shares @ 6.8¢·now 3.8¢·exp Aug 27, 2026$1.12
$-0.88
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 31, 2026?
30 shares @ 10.0¢·now 3.6¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$1.08
$-1.92
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026?$1.04Aug 17, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Mythos-Class Model released by September 30, 2026?$10.29Aug 17, 04:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$20.30Aug 17, 03:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI’s Astra model be released by August 31, 2026?$1.62Aug 16, 18:39 UTC
- TRADESELLNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?$2.30Aug 16, 10:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?$9.71Aug 15, 20:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$9.83Aug 15, 20:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?$5.19Aug 15, 20:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?$2.04Aug 15, 16:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?$2.06Aug 15, 16:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?$1.03Aug 15, 16:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by September 30, 2026?$1.02Aug 15, 15:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNext Z.ai GLM (5.4+) released by October 31, 2026?$1.03Aug 15, 15:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 16, 2026?$0.22Aug 15, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 21, 2026?$0.32Aug 15, 10:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no next Google Gemini Pro model release by August 31, 2026?$9.10Aug 15, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 25, 2026?$1.93Aug 15, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by September 30, 2026?$3.34Aug 15, 09:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 26, 2026?$0.60Aug 15, 09:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 27, 2026?$2.07Aug 15, 09:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.31
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 6, 04:31 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 17, 04:38 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.