Lumpy-Lantern
0x250d96dc6fb2910fa6527e3b95ab87f09f3d550f
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
24
Open notional
$13.79
Total PnL
$-85.38
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 24- NO
Will Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?
14 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.79
$-0.13
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on April 9?
766 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.53
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026?
765 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.53
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on March 10?
755 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.51
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 13?
715 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on February 25?
660 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.32
- YES
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on March 13?
630 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.52
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on March 2?
625 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 2, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on April 9?
603 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.21
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on February 6?
525 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-1.05
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?$4.09Jul 3, 10:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $50 in June?$104.10Jul 3, 10:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $50 in June?$104.01Jun 30, 09:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$13.01Jun 30, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMKansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers$16.08Jun 30, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$74.97Jun 30, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Solana dip to $70 in May?$74.90May 31, 07:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYKansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers$8.48May 31, 07:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$83.38May 31, 07:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$83.30May 30, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Lucian Isar be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$13.92May 30, 11:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$96.88May 30, 11:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$97.02May 30, 10:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$96.88May 30, 10:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?$97.01May 30, 10:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 28?$12.45May 30, 10:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of May 25 – May 29?$85.03May 30, 10:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microsoft (MSFT) close at $370-$380 on the final day of trading of the week of May 25 – May 29?$84.86May 29, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Z.ai have the best Coding AI model at the end of May 2026?$13.00May 29, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 28?$97.88May 29, 04:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $82.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 21, 11:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 10:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.