Puny-Affidavit
0x251246362a52e486f987df91de8d961e602d9030
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$3.2K
Realised
$12.6K
Win rate
82%
124 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will US Lecce win on 2026-01-11?
3600 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 11, 2026$0.00
$-3.60
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET
1575 shares @ 50.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-792.43
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET
605 shares @ 18.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-110.54
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET
586 shares @ 55.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-326.25
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on March 27?
572 shares @ 35.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-200.62
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET
545 shares @ 26.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-143.93
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET
529 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$0.00
$-94.04
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET
505 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 20, 2026$0.00
$-95.07
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET
497 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 11, 2026$0.00
$-119.19
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET
395 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 26, 2026$0.00
$-201.28
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6?$98.50Apr 8, 19:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6?$99.07Apr 8, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6?$0.59Apr 6, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6?$16.72Apr 6, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on April 6?$58.69Apr 6, 06:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Beijing be 18°C on April 6?$70.00Apr 6, 06:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on April 4?$3.02Apr 4, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 22°C on April 3?$53.37Apr 4, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on April 3?$96.67Apr 4, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on April 3?$96.88Apr 4, 10:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 12°C on April 3?$99.83Apr 4, 10:57 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.96Apr 4, 01:00 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET$144.99Apr 3, 16:36 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$490.97Apr 3, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$0.10Apr 3, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$4.80Apr 3, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$0.15Apr 3, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$4.55Apr 3, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$4.75Apr 3, 16:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET$0.20Apr 3, 16:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
82/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
82% win rate over 124 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
124 closed markets, 82% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $5.49
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 3, 16:04 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 8, 19:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 124 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.