Wallet digest

active

Activity score

56/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-2.7K

Realised

$172.88

Win rate

88%

24 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET
1870 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 17, 2026
$0.00
$-22.29
KOLKATA KNIGHT RIDERS
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Kolkata Knight Riders
1760 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026
$0.00
$-3.96
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET
1549 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-17.39
DOWN
Solana Up or Down - April 17, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET
1214 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 18, 2026
$0.00
$-5.57
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
1175 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026
$0.00
$-19.69
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET
1037 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026
$0.00
$-11.19
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET
970 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-16.73
UP
Ethereum Up or Down - April 13, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET
894 shares @ 4.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026
$0.00
$-38.45
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET
808 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026
$0.00
$-30.66
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET
760 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026
$0.00
$-15.80

Recent activity

REFERRAL_REWARD$1.87Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.10Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.56Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.52Jun 18, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.66Jun 16, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.62Jun 15, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$3.38Jun 14, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.46Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.07Jun 10, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.66Jun 8, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.63Jun 7, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.29Jun 5, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.31Jun 4, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.55Jun 3, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.22Jun 2, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.26Jun 1, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$2.99May 31, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.45May 30, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.57May 28, 00:35 UTC
REFERRAL_REWARD$1.25May 27, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

44/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

88% win rate over 24 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

24 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity15 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence80 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry2 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 3
Avg trade size: $11.32
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Apr 26, 00:30 UTC
Last active: Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
Win rate sample: 24 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:52:51 UTC·src:Polymarket Data