Dutiful-Paw
0x2549f943f7c16ce4d2d282c93ce4156e303ec8b1
Wallet digest
Activity score
86/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
41
Open notional
$415.51
Total PnL
$-793.35
Realised
$55.97
Win rate
78%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 41- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 31?
215 shares @ 48.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$215.27
$111.89
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 1?
139 shares @ 39.3¢·now 88.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$122.58
$68.09
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?
66 shares @ 73.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$65.91
$16.97
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?
12 shares @ 58.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.74
$4.89
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 34°C on July 31?
10 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-4.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on July 31?
2 shares @ 39.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.65
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 30?
863 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$0.00
$-241.62
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 24?
575 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$0.00
$-287.51
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 31?
307 shares @ 24.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.00
$-76.39
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on July 29?
200 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-3.40
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 31°C on July 31?$29.28Jul 31, 18:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 31?$10.00Jul 31, 16:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 1?$24.41Jul 31, 16:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 1?$86.40Jul 31, 15:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?$7.36Jul 31, 15:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?$3.03Jul 31, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?$34.93Jul 31, 14:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 31?$3.94Jul 31, 14:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?$0.06Jul 31, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 25°C on July 31?$7.05Jul 31, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on July 31?$4.48Jul 31, 10:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 21°C on July 30?$10.00Jul 31, 06:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 39°C on July 30?$38.85Jul 30, 20:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 1?$12.06Jul 30, 18:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) be 26°C on August 1?$100.21Jul 30, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on July 31?$79.26Jul 30, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C on July 31?$8.18Jul 30, 18:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 31?$3.00Jul 30, 17:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 35°C on July 30?$52.89Jul 30, 16:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 30?$20.00Jul 30, 15:30 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
78% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $21.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 19:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 31, 18:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.