Shabby-Personnel-Lift
0x2564f113776b17215b8c2a69afb35ae29713f258
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$237.07
Total PnL
$89.04
Realised
$14.53
Win rate
66%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Heike Boldt win the next Oldenburg mayoral election?
60 shares @ 0.8¢·now 22.1¢·exp Sep 13, 2026$13.29
$12.82
- NO
Will Russia enter Matiasheve by October 31?
269 shares @ 1.4¢·now 3.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$8.33
$4.67
- YES
Will LeBron James be the #1 searched athlete on Google this year?
51 shares @ 1.9¢·now 12.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.23
$5.28
- YES
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 11, 2026?
93 shares @ 0.5¢·now 6.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$5.98
$5.55
- YES
Will Reanimal win Best Narrative at the 2026 Game Awards?
31 shares @ 5.3¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 10, 2026$5.98
$4.37
- YES
Will Typhoon Dolphin be a "Very Strong Typhoon" at Japan landfall?
78 shares @ 7.8¢·now 7.0¢·exp Aug 15, 2026$5.47
$-0.62
- YES
Will ZERO PARADES: For Dead Spies win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?
59 shares @ 4.4¢·now 8.4¢·exp Dec 10, 2026$4.93
$2.34
- YES
Will Big Walk win Best Independent Game at the 2026 Game Awards?
54 shares @ 2.2¢·now 8.6¢·exp Dec 10, 2026$4.62
$3.45
- YES
Will Renée Good be the #1 searched passing on Google in the US this year?
46 shares @ 5.8¢·now 9.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.23
$1.59
- YES
Will Iran target a Arab country on August 25, 2026?
40 shares @ 10.3¢·now 9.0¢·exp Aug 25, 2026$3.59
$-0.52
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Matiasheve by October 31?$1.06Aug 7, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Matiasheve by October 31?$1.35Aug 7, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Matiasheve by October 31?$0.17Aug 7, 03:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Matiasheve by October 31?$0.20Aug 7, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-6 be released by August 21, 2026?$2.57Aug 7, 03:13 UTC
- TRADESELLIran charges Hormuz fees by December 31?$2.69Aug 7, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BNB dip to $200 in August?$0.22Aug 7, 03:11 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: August$1.38Aug 7, 03:11 UTC
- TRADESELLNothing Ever Happens: August$0.78Aug 7, 03:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in August?$0.29Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jake Auchincloss be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?$0.71Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jake Auchincloss be the MA-04 Democratic nominee?$0.75Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best Chinese AI model at the end of August 2026?$0.89Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?$0.74Aug 7, 03:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?$0.94Aug 7, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Munetaka Murakami win the 2026 AL Rookie of the Year award?$0.63Aug 7, 03:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Barrett Pfeiffer win Big Brother season 28?$0.38Aug 7, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?$0.76Aug 7, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest score achieved by an OpenAI model on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026 be 50% or higher?$1.72Aug 7, 03:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP dip to $1.00 in August?$0.01Aug 7, 03:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
66% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 23/100.
38 closed markets, 66% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $0.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 7, 02:49 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 03:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.