0x25a4aeb6d5446136023e6e53527ee5f9b555a797
0x25a4aeb6d5446136023e6e53527ee5f9b555a797
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
23
Open notional
$52.59
Total PnL
$-4.03
Realised
$-0.32
Win rate
75%
20 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 23- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 30?
6 shares @ 74.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$5.65
$1.47
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on April 1?
5 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$4.52
$0.90
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C on April 1?
4 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$4.39
$0.83
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on April 1?
4 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 1, 2026$4.29
$0.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on March 31?
4 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$3.94
$0.91
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 25°C on April 2?
4 shares @ 95.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$3.57
$0.18
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 17°C on April 2?
3 shares @ 83.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$3.02
$0.51
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?
3 shares @ 77.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$2.99
$0.69
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 2?
3 shares @ 82.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$2.90
$0.52
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?
3 shares @ 71.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$2.88
$0.84
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 26°C on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 16°C on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 4?$0.00Apr 5, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 25°C on April 4?$0.00Apr 5, 14:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C on April 2?$0.00Apr 5, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be 68°F or higher on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 14:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 62-63°F on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?$0.00Apr 5, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 50-51°F on March 25?$0.00Apr 5, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 2?$0.00Apr 5, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 14°C on April 2?$0.00Apr 5, 13:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on March 30?$0.00Apr 5, 13:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 20 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
20 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 5, 13:07 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 5, 14:01 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 20 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.