Short-Term-Match
0x25b48134d3e344437fd4dc754737be1e7c8f17b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
129
Open notional
$12.53
Total PnL
$-301.10
Realised
$-25.44
Win rate
7%
43 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 129- NO
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 88-89°F on July 23?
3 shares @ 72.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.76
$0.76
- NO
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 82-83°F on July 23?
3 shares @ 78.0¢·now 99.6¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.55
$0.55
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 23?
3 shares @ 80.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.48
$0.47
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 102-103°F on July 23?
2 shares @ 83.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$2.35
$0.35
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 23?
1 shares @ 83.0¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.21
$0.20
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 23?
1 shares @ 85.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$1.17
$0.17
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on July 23?
2 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.6¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.01
$-1.99
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 23?
1 shares @ 84.0¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?
85 shares @ 4.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
50 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 23?$2.27Jul 23, 18:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 23?$0.00Jul 23, 17:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on July 23?$2.33Jul 23, 16:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$2.37Jul 23, 16:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 23?$0.47Jul 23, 15:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on July 23?$0.45Jul 23, 15:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on July 23?$2.38Jul 23, 12:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 23?$0.38Jul 23, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 23?$2.30Jul 23, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on July 23?$2.38Jul 23, 10:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 23?$2.21Jul 23, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 23?$2.39Jul 23, 09:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 23?$2.36Jul 23, 07:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on July 23?$2.02Jul 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C on July 23?$2.02Jul 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on July 23?$2.02Jul 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on July 23?$2.01Jul 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on July 23?$2.02Jul 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on July 23?$2.02Jul 23, 06:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on July 23?$2.02Jul 23, 06:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
57/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 43 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
43 closed markets, 7% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 08:26 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 18:53 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 43 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.