Shabby-Blackboard
0x26123cbf0f4820f7e70408a8c054ba7615c05289
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$3.39
Total PnL
$-2.6K
Realised
$-598.46
Win rate
54%
189 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 34°C on July 29?
138 shares @ 6.4¢·now 1.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.07
$-6.82
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 40°C on July 29?
100 shares @ 2.6¢·now 0.8¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.75
$-1.85
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on July 29?
103 shares @ 10.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.41
$-10.79
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on July 29?
106 shares @ 25.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.05
$-27.14
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on July 29?
101 shares @ 10.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.05
$-10.81
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 34°C or below on July 29?
100 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.05
$-1.03
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 34°C on July 14?
136 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-3.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on July 13?
127 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 13, 2026$0.00
$-4.92
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on July 6?
126 shares @ 51.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-65.32
- NO
Will the highest temperature in London be 32°C on July 6?
126 shares @ 19.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026$0.00
$-24.99
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on July 29?$3.80Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 29?$8.39Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on July 29?$0.62Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on July 29?$0.53Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C or higher on July 29?$5.79Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$8.77Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$6.87Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 36°C on July 29?$0.40Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?$0.08Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on July 29?$0.07Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on July 29?$1.20Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$7.56Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$1.04Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.77Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.73Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 35°C on July 29?$0.62Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on July 29?$0.01Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on July 29?$0.13Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 29?$9.49Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chongqing be 40°C on July 29?$9.50Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
51/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
54% win rate over 189 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 40/100.
189 closed markets, 54% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $3.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 08:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 08:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 189 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.