Scrawny-Till
0x264a7ac4d3e5607a2335a61eb0b210904eb855d4
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
20
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-513.62
Realised
$318.34
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 20- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2427 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-152.88
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappe score 10+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
2000 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 3, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET
560 shares @ 17.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET
344 shares @ 29.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 18, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET
338 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
319 shares @ 31.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 19, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET
305 shares @ 32.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-100.00
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET
233 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-4.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET
227 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-64.16
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$2.13Jul 21, 07:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 21, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET$2.09Jul 21, 07:53 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$50.00Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$4.16Jul 21, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$20.21Jul 20, 09:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$93.26Jul 20, 09:09 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$118.79Jul 20, 09:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET$104.92Jul 20, 09:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$104.96Jul 20, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$4.09Jul 20, 09:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET$2.10Jul 20, 09:01 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$222.21Jul 20, 08:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$104.88Jul 20, 08:59 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$158.54Jul 20, 08:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET$104.87Jul 20, 08:57 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$1.04Jul 20, 08:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$2.13Jul 20, 08:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$108.24Jul 20, 08:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET$104.73Jul 20, 08:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 20, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET$2.14Jul 20, 08:49 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $1.4K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 19, 07:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 07:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.