Wallet digest

active

Activity score

31/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.5K

Realised

$-255.38

Win rate

142 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET
1125 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-180.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET
556 shares @ 26.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 10, 2026
$0.00
$-148.82
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 5, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 5, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET
38 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 6, 2026
$0.00
$-4.12
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 24, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET
32 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026
$0.00
$-22.38
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET
31 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 6, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET
23 shares @ 25.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026
$0.00
$-5.95
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET
23 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET
21 shares @ 71.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET
21 shares @ 73.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026
$0.00
$-15.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET$1.00Aug 18, 22:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET$1.07Aug 18, 21:44 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$5.00Aug 11, 14:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET$0.55Aug 11, 14:50 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$0.55Aug 11, 14:49 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET$0.55Aug 11, 14:46 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.26Aug 11, 14:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET$0.39Aug 11, 14:31 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$0.33Aug 11, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET$0.27Aug 11, 14:22 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.24Aug 11, 14:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET$0.36Aug 11, 14:07 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET$0.50Aug 11, 13:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET$0.55Aug 11, 13:40 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET$0.50Aug 11, 13:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET$0.65Aug 11, 12:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET$0.44Aug 11, 12:17 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$0.14Aug 11, 11:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET$0.35Aug 11, 11:51 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET$0.65Aug 11, 10:25 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

64/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

1% win rate over 142 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 22/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

142 closed markets, 1% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity66 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry63 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk22 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 44
Avg trade size: $0.80
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Aug 10, 15:36 UTC
Last active: Aug 18, 22:14 UTC
Win rate sample: 142 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:38:44 UTC·src:Polymarket Data