Wallet profile

Lucky-Ceremony

0x2652dd1140c3b9e69c8852264cf8dbe727672a1d

activity 32/100

Wallet digest

Activity score

32/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-1.7M

Realised

$521.01

Win rate

41%

29 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Recent activity

  • REFERRAL_REWARD$211.07Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$181.35Jul 6, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$146.84Jul 5, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$144.41Jul 4, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$136.26Jul 3, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$207.51Jul 2, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$240.31Jul 1, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$178.27Jun 30, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$93.38Jun 29, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$129.84Jun 28, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$105.92Jun 27, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$193.28Jun 26, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$230.69Jun 25, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$234.04Jun 24, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$164.25Jun 23, 14:57 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$171.91Jun 22, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$183.49Jun 21, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$129.75Jun 20, 00:37 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$138.78Jun 19, 00:35 UTC
  • REFERRAL_REWARD$129.65Jun 18, 00:35 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

65/100
read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

41% win rate over 29 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

0/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
missing

No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.

Resolved-only track record
review

29 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity0 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence97 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry75 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk20 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
0
Avg trade size
$0.00
Top category
Category concentration
0%
First seen
May 19, 00:35 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:51 UTC
Win rate sample
29 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

updated 09:42:13 UTC·src:Polymarket Data