Rural-Twist
0x2654d40407adc71a878e303c4b45714768abb45f
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-460.68
Realised
$-94.64
Win rate
42%
134 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- UNDER
FC Metz vs. FC Lorient: O/U 2.5
60 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-2.11
- NO
Switzerland vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score
60 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-1.50
- YES
Will Club Tijuana vs. Club Santos Laguna end in a draw?
60 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 9, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- UNDER
IF Elfsborg vs. IK Sirius: O/U 0.5
60 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-1.20
- OZAROX ESPORTS
LoL: Ozarox Esports vs Team Phoenix - Game 1 Winner
60 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-0.90
- UNDER
Paraguay vs. Nicaragua: O/U 3.5
57 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 18°C or higher on April 9?
55 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 9, 2026$0.00
$-6.34
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C or higher on April 6?
53 shares @ 8.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 6, 2026$0.00
$-4.68
- OVER
V-Varen Nagasaki vs. Nagoya Grampus: O/U 3.5
49 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-6.58
- OVER
Grêmio FBPA vs. Fluminense FC: O/U 2.5
49 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$0.00
$-4.89
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $300 in August?$5.36Aug 7, 13:40 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump praise Kevin Warsh in August?$1.81Aug 7, 11:40 UTC
- TRADESELLJames Comey charges dropped by December 31?$3.62Aug 6, 15:21 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.23Aug 6, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMCA Boca Juniors vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5$2.38Aug 6, 00:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?$2.36Aug 5, 23:56 UTC
- TRADESELLCA Boca Juniors vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: 1st Half O/U 0.5$1.17Aug 5, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA Boca Juniors vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: 1st Half O/U 0.5$1.73Aug 5, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gavin Newsom announce a Presidential run before 2028?$5.35Aug 5, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLCA Boca Juniors vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5$1.09Aug 5, 22:30 UTC
- TRADESELLCA Boca Juniors vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5$1.18Aug 5, 22:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA Boca Juniors vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 1.5$3.47Aug 5, 22:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYCA Boca Juniors vs. Estudiantes de La Plata: O/U 3.5$1.71Aug 5, 22:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the September decision?$5.66Aug 5, 21:12 UTC
- TRADESELLGV CD San José vs. CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo: O/U 1.5$6.04Aug 5, 21:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill FH Hafnarfjordur vs. KR Reykjavik end in a draw?$2.02Aug 5, 21:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYGV CD San José vs. CD San Antonio Bulo Bulo: O/U 1.5$3.70Aug 5, 20:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill FH Hafnarfjordur vs. KR Reykjavik end in a draw?$4.80Aug 5, 20:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?$1.01Aug 5, 20:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by August 21, 2026?$5.00Aug 5, 20:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
42% win rate over 134 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 24/100.
134 closed markets, 42% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $2.62
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 5, 19:32 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 13:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 134 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.