Alarming-Fiction
0x267b20f3f1ec24f0b9d01f1bdffae3b2c6a99432
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$56.18
Total PnL
$6.18
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 15?$50.00May 10, 04:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 4?$73.57May 10, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 4?$73.50Dec 4, 02:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?$73.50Dec 4, 02:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?$73.28Nov 20, 04:46 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$304.57Nov 3, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEMFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$311.73Nov 3, 01:18 UTC
- REDEEM100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?$408.16Nov 3, 01:18 UTC
- TRADESELLFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$19.82Oct 27, 04:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after October 2025 meeting?$329.08Oct 27, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting?$300.00Oct 27, 04:38 UTC
- TRADEBUY100% tariff on China in effect by November 1?$400.00Oct 27, 04:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 7
- Avg trade size
- $177.95
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Oct 27, 04:36 UTC
- Last active
- May 10, 04:20 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.