Failing-Pagan
0x2692ef480c8dd150e4cdbd26ecd8f58a375c38e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
118
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-3.0K
Realised
$1.4K
Win rate
70%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 118- NO
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?
25000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026?
10000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Trump Leave China on May 16?
8392 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026$0.00
$-25.18
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
6458 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 13, 2026$0.00
$-43.89
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
4459 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?
3000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 20, 2026$0.00
$-30.35
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 12 to March 14, 2026?
3000 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026?
2943 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-8.83
- NO
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,300 by end of January?
2240 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-13.44
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 4 to May 6, 2026?
2097 shares @ 6.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026$0.00
$-133.64
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$2.61Jul 28, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$0.90Jul 28, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$0.81Jul 28, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$17.87Jul 28, 05:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$0.08Jul 28, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on July 28?$0.24Jul 28, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 26?$6.59Jul 25, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 26?$1.00Jul 25, 15:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 26?$1.05Jul 25, 15:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 26?$1.35Jul 25, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 41°C on July 26?$0.52Jul 25, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 40°C on July 26?$18.73Jul 25, 15:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 42°C on July 26?$0.32Jul 25, 15:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$84.24Jul 25, 15:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$23.22Jul 25, 12:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$15.04Jul 25, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$4.00Jul 25, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$2.00Jul 25, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$2.00Jul 25, 12:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$3.00Jul 25, 12:36 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
70% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.
30 closed markets, 70% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 9, 07:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 05:58 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.