Live-Recession
0x26b121249a97cf3be639c27476e15340af2efd74
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
36
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-403.63
Realised
$-2.65
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after July 2025 meeting?
16667 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-50.00
- YES
Will xAI have the top AI model on July 31?
1500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2025 meeting?
1484 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-40.00
- YES
Trump approval >45% on August 1?
1000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $125K in July?
619 shares @ 3.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will another company be the largest in the world by market cap on August 31?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting?
278 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Sep 17, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- YES
Ethereum above $3,700 on August 6?
251 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $120K on July 30?
200 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2025$0.00
$-20.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk say "Crypto/Bitcoin/Doge" during the August 6 AMA?
176 shares @ 56.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 6, 2025$0.00
$-100.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$27.14Jan 13, 11:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?$20.00Jan 7, 19:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 5?$21.60Nov 5, 18:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $125,000 in November?$1.00Nov 5, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $120,000 in November?$1.00Nov 5, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November?$2.00Nov 5, 18:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be between 61-62°F on November 6?$1.00Nov 5, 17:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on November 5?$21.00Nov 5, 17:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be between 64-65°F on November 5?$1.00Nov 5, 17:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 1?$4.67Nov 5, 17:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 29, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET$2.00Sep 29, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 1?$1.00Sep 29, 23:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US recognize Palestine in 2025?$0.46Sep 29, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?$3.67Sep 29, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLZelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31?$3.43Sep 29, 23:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Russia?$6.13Sep 29, 23:32 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - September 15, 2PM ET$1.12Sep 16, 00:11 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET$0.00Sep 15, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET$1.00Sep 15, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - September 15, 2PM ET$1.00Sep 15, 18:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $15.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 2, 15:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jan 13, 11:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.