0x26bb798464eae4c24b2ddba0ea68d792e5a203cf
0x26bb798464eae4c24b2ddba0ea68d792e5a203cf
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$994.99
Total PnL
$57.13
Realised
$20.10
Win rate
100%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
438 shares @ 27.2¢·now 23.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$102.17
$-16.81
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?
98 shares @ 77.7¢·now 89.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$87.48
$11.52
- YES
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
528 shares @ 9.0¢·now 13.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$68.66
$20.84
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June?
60 shares @ 82.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$60.35
$10.35
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
64 shares @ 83.0¢·now 92.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$58.78
$6.05
- YES
Will the Grand Theft Auto VI PS5 launch price be at least $70?
46 shares @ 98.0¢·now 94.7¢·exp Nov 19, 2026$43.68
$-1.55
- YES
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.8% before 2027?
61 shares @ 18.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.16
$27.17
- NO
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
37 shares @ 70.1¢·now 97.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$35.59
$9.87
- NO
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by August 31?
36 shares @ 82.7¢·now 96.2¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$34.72
$4.85
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?
53 shares @ 39.9¢·now 57.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$30.24
$9.09
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Aug 9, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 8, 2026?$12.10Aug 8, 20:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31?$5.30Aug 8, 20:02 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$19.47Aug 8, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran charges Hormuz fees by August 31?$9.65Aug 8, 15:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$10.51Aug 8, 14:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 9, 2026?$3.08Aug 8, 14:00 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$26.81Aug 8, 11:58 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 8, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by December 31$1.24Aug 7, 12:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 7, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026?$2.67Aug 6, 00:31 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 6, 00:13 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 2?$18.22Aug 6, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$0.00Aug 6, 00:07 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 5, 02:32 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 1?$23.31Aug 5, 00:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 4, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 2, 00:14 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
22/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $9.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 00:15 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 9, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.