Cumbersome-Barge
0x26efdfbf3f20b86e5cf631136fb5ae598e0fa308
Wallet digest
Activity score
93/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
7
Open notional
$9.6K
Total PnL
$449.40
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
9900 shares @ 42.4¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$5.7K
$1.5K
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?
6036 shares @ 48.0¢·now 65.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$4.0K
$1.1K
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
8364 shares @ 22.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-1.9K
- NO
Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?
345 shares @ 22.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-75.79
- NO
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22?
200 shares @ 30.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-60.00
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
100 shares @ 64.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-64.00
- YES
Will Jensen Huang be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025?
25 shares @ 26.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-6.53
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$7.84Jul 20, 13:10 UTC
- TAKER_REBATE$10.00Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$78.75Jul 10, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$4.3KJul 10, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$151.78Jul 10, 19:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$2.8KJul 10, 19:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Apr–Jun–Jul)?$2.0KJul 10, 19:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$9.3KJun 19, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$9.3KJun 17, 17:41 UTC
- REDEEMSpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?$102.59Jun 17, 17:40 UTC
- REDEEMUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$9.2KJun 17, 17:40 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.17Mar 31, 14:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$9.0KMar 31, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$114.00Mar 31, 13:57 UTC
- MERGEUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$1.0KMar 31, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$134.23Mar 31, 13:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$568.80Mar 30, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS forces enter Iran by March 31?$379.20Mar 30, 16:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$9.0KMar 30, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYSpaceX (Space Exploration Technologies Corp.) IPO before 2027?$79.15Feb 3, 15:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $1.2K
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 1, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 20, 13:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.