Soggy-Trench
0x26f7fe999254fa190122ce86e0c2269bab259a17
Wallet digest
Activity score
70/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$249.30
Total PnL
$-292.42
Realised
$-20.46
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?
182 shares @ 55.0¢·now 56.5¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$102.71
$2.71
- NO
Will Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 20 and 25 minutes long?
57 shares @ 80.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$46.22
$0.29
- YES
Will "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be greater than 80k?
61 shares @ 82.0¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$43.60
$-6.40
- NO
Will Chris Hill win the 2026 Collin County Judge election?
256 shares @ 39.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$29.49
$-70.51
- YES
Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?
72 shares @ 32.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$21.29
$-1.80
- NO
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?
2 shares @ 47.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.12
$1.08
- YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $80 in July?
2 shares @ 23.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$1.95
$1.50
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 18?
3 shares @ 50.0¢·now 46.0¢·exp Jul 18, 2026$1.38
$-0.12
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1 shares @ 39.0¢·now 48.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.55
$0.11
- NO
Iran successfully targets shipping by July 31?
750 shares @ 26.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 14, 2026$0.00
$-195.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on July 18?$100.00Jul 16, 08:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Ankara be 30°C on July 18?$1.50Jul 16, 08:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$150.22Jul 16, 07:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$7.40Jul 16, 06:02 UTC
- MERGEWill Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 20 and 25 minutes long?$19.98Jul 16, 06:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 20 and 25 minutes long?$61.91Jul 16, 05:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$3.80Jul 16, 05:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$59.67Jul 16, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$100.00Jul 16, 05:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$91.17Jul 16, 05:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?$100.00Jul 16, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 20 and 25 minutes long?$4.00Jul 16, 03:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Music, Fashion, Film" - Charli XCX first week album sales be greater than 80k?$50.00Jul 16, 02:02 UTC
- REWARD$6.08Jul 16, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jun–Jul–Sep)?$23.10Jul 15, 23:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Chris Hill win the 2026 Collin County Judge election?$100.00Jul 15, 22:40 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$3.32Jul 15, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$25.61Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$15.62Jul 14, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27?$13.95Jul 14, 20:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $50.90
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 13, 09:25 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 16, 08:29 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.