Wallet digest

active

Activity score

50/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

200

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-963.94

Realised

$-31.08

Win rate

51%

104 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 200

YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May?
2347 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-7.04
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?
1920 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-9.60
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April?
913 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-3.78
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in April?
515 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-19.18
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET
500 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET
396 shares @ 3.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-14.40
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?
390 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026
$0.00
$-12.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET
230 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 29, 2026
$0.00
$-13.79
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $160 in April?
216 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.58
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET
206 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026
$0.00
$-14.40

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?$0.47Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June?$1.35Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?$4.68Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?$13.60Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?$22.26Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?$42.30Jun 5, 21:40 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?$2.46Jun 5, 21:35 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 in June?$79.00Jun 5, 21:34 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June?$3.35Jun 5, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $175 in June?$16.82Jun 5, 21:28 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in June?$10.53Jun 5, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in June?$25.85Jun 5, 21:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?$12.56May 23, 19:50 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May?$12.68May 23, 19:50 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$21.84May 23, 18:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?$67.28May 23, 18:28 UTC
TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?$94.38May 23, 18:24 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in May?$39.89May 22, 23:49 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in May?$2.73May 22, 23:48 UTC
TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May?$68.78May 22, 23:48 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

59/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

51% win rate over 104 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 30/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

104 closed markets, 51% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry42 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk30 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $16.10
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 11, 23:40 UTC
Last active: Jun 12, 15:55 UTC
Win rate sample: 104 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 13:07:47 UTC·src:Polymarket Data