Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-14.3K

Realised

$-648.37

Win rate

55 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 55

YES
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11?
7178 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026
$0.00
$-247.87
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET
3787 shares @ 37.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 21, 2026
$0.00
$-1.4K
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET
3469 shares @ 17.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-599.99
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET
3333 shares @ 5.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-190.15
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET
2688 shares @ 37.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-1000.00
YES
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19?
2413 shares @ 16.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 19, 2026
$0.00
$-386.10
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET
2348 shares @ 22.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026
$0.00
$-525.27
KARMINE CORP
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoffs
2287 shares @ 17.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026
$0.00
$-400.00
KT ROLSTER
LoL: KT Rolster vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2
2247 shares @ 11.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026
$0.00
$-258.25
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET
2184 shares @ 13.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 20, 2026
$0.00
$-304.54

Recent activity

TAKER_REBATE$7.47Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET$308.64Jul 1, 16:51 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Scotland win on 2026-06-19?$395.83Jun 19, 21:43 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$511.20Jun 19, 21:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$80.58Jun 19, 21:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET$452.15Jun 19, 21:36 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$1.4KJun 19, 21:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$520.09Jun 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET$0.75Jun 19, 21:32 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET$63.88Jun 19, 20:27 UTC
TRADESELLWill Australia win on 2026-06-19?$64.51Jun 19, 20:26 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET$11.60Jun 19, 20:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Australia win on 2026-06-19?$514.32Jun 19, 19:36 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$174.49Jun 13, 14:11 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET$355.52Jun 13, 14:11 UTC
TRADEBUYWill South Africa win on 2026-06-11?$255.05Jun 11, 19:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET$59.25Jun 11, 19:27 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$310.63Jun 7, 13:16 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$212.26May 22, 10:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET$69.37May 22, 10:41 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

55/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 55 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 39/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

55 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry31 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk39 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 46
Avg trade size: $224.68
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 19, 06:58 UTC
Last active: Jul 9, 21:11 UTC
Win rate sample: 55 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 16:21:53 UTC·src:Polymarket Data