All-Caution
0x2777c44d006c9e248fffb9c070a36c1f6c7bd690
Wallet digest
Activity score
44/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$17.76
Total PnL
$-353.81
Realised
$116.23
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
20 shares @ 70.0¢·now 80.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$16.01
$2.01
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026?
50 shares @ 10.0¢·now 3.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.75
$-3.25
- NO
Major cyberattack on Iran in June?
2796 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-66.32
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before July?
1300 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-27.95
- NO
Israel strike on Iran on June 21?
588 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 22, 2025$0.00
$-10.00
- NO
Israel strike on Iran on June 22?
406 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 23, 2025$0.00
$-11.20
- YES
Israel strike on Iran on June 25?
306 shares @ 12.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2025$0.00
$-38.40
- YES
Will the US officially declare war on Iran before August?
294 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2025$0.00
$-17.64
- YES
Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?
150 shares @ 3.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.20
- NO
Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July?
133 shares @ 18.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2025$0.00
$-24.20
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 17, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 14, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 4, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.