Formal-Biplane
0x27ce6d1c1928a604624fce6425a1a6e86104f2a5
Wallet digest
Activity score
31/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-173.95
Realised
$-9.29
Win rate
4%
55 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C or higher on May 13?
1200 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 17°C or below on May 14?
396 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 14?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 15?
171 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.67
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 14?
146 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET
145 shares @ 2.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 13?
129 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-1.13
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 14?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 14, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 12°C on May 10?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 10, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4?
125 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 5?$1.47Jun 4, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 5?$3.14Jun 4, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 5?$4.13Jun 4, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 5?$1.05Jun 4, 19:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?$1.05Jun 4, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?$1.05Jun 4, 14:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?$1.76Jun 4, 13:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?$6.33Jun 4, 13:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?$3.76Jun 4, 11:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 4?$5.78Jun 4, 07:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?$2.07Jun 4, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4?$1.05Jun 4, 07:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?$1.05Jun 4, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 15°C on May 11?$0.00Jun 4, 07:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 16°C or higher on May 11?$0.00Jun 4, 07:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 4?$9.95Jun 4, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 4?$4.08Jun 4, 05:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 4?$1.05Jun 4, 05:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 4?$1.05Jun 4, 05:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 4?$6.07Jun 4, 04:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
59/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
4% win rate over 55 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 25/100.
55 closed markets, 4% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $3.28
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 09:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 19:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 55 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.